Subject: Dole Sweeps 7 "Super Tuesday"; analysis of voter attitudes
Bob Dole swept all seven 'Super Tuesday states,'' taking from
47% to 61% of the vote against his remaining opponeents, Pat
Buchanan and Steve Forbes. Dole carried Texas, Tennessee,
Mississippi, Oklahoma, Oregon and Florida. Reporters expected
that Forbes will soon quit the race, but Buchanan will hold on
until the convention. Buchanan is unlikely to have a large
delegation at the convention, as Dole has been winning nearly all
the delegates.
Taxes, the deficit and distrust of Washington were predominant
views of voters Tuesday, exit polls show.
what the exit polls say
[from Associated Press; fair use reprint for nonprofit educational
se only.]
Two-thirds of the voters in Tuesday's GOP primaries
said they trust Washington to do the right thing ''only some of the
time.'' One in 10 said never. Of those who backed Bob Dole, a
Washington veteran, a quarter said they trust the federal government
most of the time, compared to a fifth of all voters. Pat Buchanan's
voters were the most suspicious of Washington. Eighty-five percent of
them trust the government only sometimes or never, polls in the seven
tates found. Hardly anyone said they trust the government all the
time, and only one in seven voters chose experience in Washington as
the quality that matters most in a presidential candidate. Almost all
of them voted for Dole. Despite disenchantment with the government,
voters weren't looking for political outsiders.
Only about 5% said they most wanted someone who isn't a career
politician. They mostly voted for Forbes. Dole carried almost
every category of voters surveyed, old and young, rich and poor,
high school dropouts and college graduates. His support was weaker
among people who voted for Ross Perot in 1992, political
independents, and voters pessimistic about the economy. Buchanan
beat Dole among the one-tenth of voters who said abortion was the
most important issue.
Dole also did poorly among the one in 10 voters looking for a
candidate with vision. In fact, half of all voters said they don't
think Dole has new ideas. A CBS poll found the same sentiment
among Republicans nationwide. But in the Super Tuesday primaries,
a third of the voters who thought Dole had no new ideas voted for
him anyway. Republican primary voters in Florida, Mississippi,
Tennessee, Texas, Louisiana, Oklahoma and Oregon were interviewed
by a consortium of the AP, ABC, CBS, CNN and NBC.
About 40% said they would like to see someone else in the GOP
race. Of Dole's voters, 35% wanted other candidates to choose
from. Overall, two-thirds of the primary voters thought Dole could
beat Bill Clinton. The religious right made up 35% of Tuesday's
voters - as many as in any state with a primary this year. Dole
won half of their votes. One-third voted for Buchanan, who relies
on the religious right as a core group.
Overall, almost two-thirds of voters said they were more concerned
by the nation's moral problems than by the economy. But economic
worries were evident. Voters ranked taxes and the federal budget
deficit as top issues, with about a quarter choosing each. The
economy and jobs, taken together, came next. Dole won in all three
categories. The partial sample included interviews with more than
5,000 voters in seven states, for a margin of error of plus or
minus 2 percentage points.
Voter Profiles In Each 'Super Tuesday' State
---
FLORIDA
Two of every five voters were more than 60 years old, and two-
thirds of this group voted for Sen. Bob Dole. A third of voters
were over 65, and they voted for Dole in similar numbers. However,
nearly half of all voters said Dole has no new ideas. Close to
two-thirds of all voters said they did not favor a GOP platform
that calls for a ban on abortion. About six out of every 10
voters thought Pat Buchanan was too extreme.
LOUISIANA
Nearly one out of every five voters said they never trusted
Washington to do the right thing. Of this group, nearly half voted
for Buchanan. Still, voters were evenly split over whether
Buchanan was too extreme. They were equally divided on whether
Buchanan could beat President Clinton. However, this division was
not present in other states. Clinton won easily in those matches.
Close to two-thirds of voters thought the current field of
candidates was acceptable.
MISSISSIPPI
Nearly seven out of 10 voters said they were more concerned with
the nation's moral problems than its eco-nomic ones. Slightly more
than half said Dole has new ideas. About two-thirds of voters
thought the current field of candidates was okay. Of that group,
seven out of 10 people voted for Dole. About four out of 10 voters
were over 60 years old. Nearly three-fourths of that group voted
for Dole.
OKLAHOMA
Nearly two out of three voters said they were more concerned with
the nation's moral problems than economic ones. A similar share of
voters said they trusted Washington to do the right thing ''some
of the time.'' Voters divided evenly on: whether their standard of
living will rise or fall in the next 10 years, if Buchanan is too
extreme, and whether the GOP platform should back an abortion ban.
OREGON
About half of voters said they paid ''a lot'' of attention to the
presidential primary, one of the first to be conducted through the
mail. But nearly half said Dole has no new ideas. About seven out
of 10 voters said they trust Washington to do the right thing
''some of the time.'' About one out of 10 said they never trusted
Washington. Voters were split on whether they preferred the flat
tax or graduated tax.
About three-fifths of them said they were concerned about the
nation's moral problems more than its economic ones. TENNESSEE
Little more than half of voters wanted the GOP platform to call
for an abortion ban. About the same number said Dole does not have
any ideas. A little more than half of the voters were men. More
than a third of all voters were over 60 years old. One out of
every four voters were over 65.
Even though he dropped out of the race last week, more than a
fourth of Tennessee voters thought former Gov. Lamar Alexander
could beat President Clinton.
TEXAS
About 70% of voters said they could trust Washington to do the
right thing ''only some of the time.'' Only two out of 10 could
trust Washington ''most of the time,'' and one out of every 10
said they never trusted Washington. Those who never trusted
Washington preferred outsider Buchanan over Dole.
Nearly six out of 10 voters were older than 45. About two-thirds
of voters said moral issues were more important than economic
ones.
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Unofficial Returns From 'Super Tuesday' States x= winner
FLORIDA
5,314 of 5,796 precincts - 92%
x-Bob Dole, 461,886 - 55%
Steve Forbes, 175,803 - 21%
Pat Buchanan, 156,725 - 19%
Alan Keyes, 15,730 - 2%
Lamar Alexander, 13,430 - 2%
LOUISIANA
3,325 of 4,044 precincts - 82%
x-Bob Dole, 28,965 - 47%
Pat Buchanan, 20,087 - 33%
Steve Forbes, 8,169 - 13%
Alan Keyes, 1,961 - 3%
MISSISSIPPI
2,066 of 2,143 precincts - 96%
x-Bob Dole, 87,733 - 61%
Pat Buchanan, 37,778 - 26%
Steve Forbes, 11,057 - 8%
Alan Keyes, 2,689 - 2%
OKLAHOMA
2,193 of 2,202 precincts - 99%
x-Bob Dole, 156,969 - 59%
Pat Buchanan, 56,993 - 22%
Steve Forbes, 37,246 - 14%
Alan Keyes, 6,312 - 2%
TENNESSEE
2,230 of 2,413 precincts - 92%
x-Bob Dole, 137,474 - 51%
Pat Buchanan, 67,727 - 25%
Lamar Alexander, 29,969 - 11%
Steve Forbes, 20,847 - 8%
Alan Keyes, 7,122 - 3%
TEXAS
2,237 of 8,179 precincts - 27%
x-Bob Dole, 216,263 - 55%
Pat Buchanan, 84,343 - 22%
Steve Forbes, 46,462 - 12%
Lamar Alexander, 12,410 - 3%
Alan Keyes, 12,331 - 3%