PRB Report in US Population

New PRB report in US Population (1990s)

[H-Demog ed note: This is a report on the contemporary issues surrounding the US population and is crossposted from H-Ethnic.]

[H-Ethnic Co-editor's note: Thanks to Mary Kent of the Population Reference Bureau for sending along this press release on the Bureau's newly released publication, "The United States at Mid-Decade," which was cited in the Washington Post, New York Times, and numerous other newspapers yesterday. JB]

New Report Examines Demographic Trends Shaping Voters' Concerns

Crafting a campaign message that appeals to the American public will be a formidable challenge in 1996. A new report, The United States at Mid-Decade, examines how demographic factors are segmenting voters and shaping their concerns. The report, released March 6 at the National Press Club, Washington, DC, was written by Carol J. De Vita, senior research demographer at the Population Reference Bureau, a private, nonprofit, nonadvocacy research group in Washington, DC. The report highlights four major issue areas:

Families

More stability in family patterns: One in three households in 1995 had a child under age 18, about the same as in 1990. Divorce rates appear to be stabilizing. Out-of- wedlock birth rates are increasing more slowly.
Two-parent, married couple families on the increase: Between 1990 and 1995, the number of two-parent households with children increased by over 700,000, reversing a 20-year pattern of decline.
A baby boomlet for a middle-age population: Immigration and the large number of baby boom women still in their childbearing years produced a mini baby boom during the late 1980s and early 1990s. By 1994, there were 68 million children in the population, almost as many as at the height of the famed baby boom era. Median age for the nation crept to 34 years in 1994, up from 30 years in 1980.
Growing elderly population: Every state witnessed an increase in the size of its older population (age 65+) during the first half of the 1990s. The elderly represent about 13 percent of the U.S. population, but this share ranges widely from 18 percent in Florida to 5 percent in Alaska.

Income

Income lagging: The United States was pulling out of an economic recession that hit the country at the beginning of the decade (1990 to1991), but median household income by mid-decade (1994) lagged about 6 percent below its 1989 prerecession peak. The Northeast experienced the biggest decline (11 percent); the South saw the smallest drop (3 percent).
Poverty declining: Poverty rates, which rose during the early 1990s, have since shown signs of improvement. Between 1993 and 1994, there was a drop in both the rate of poverty and number of people in poverty. Poverty rates for children are almost twice as high as for adults.
Gap between rich and poor widening: In 1994, the top 5 percent of households pulled in $110,000 or more annually, more than eight times the income of the bottom 20 percent of households ($13,000 or less). Twenty years earlier, there was only a sixfold difference between these two income groups. This trend has left many Americans feeling insecure about the future.

Regional/Geographic Shifts

Growth in the West: The most rapid population growth in the 1990s occurred in the West, especially in the mountain states of Nevada, Idaho, Arizona, Colorado, Utah, and New Mexico. Combined, these six states added almost 1.9 million people to the region's population in just five years. Of the 10 fastest growing states, only 1 (Georgia) was in the eastern half of the country.
Declines in the Northeast: Without immigration from abroad, two states in the Northeast (Massachusetts and New York) would have lost population between 1990 and 1995.
A nation of suburbanites: Over three-quarters of the U.S. population lived in metropolitan areas at mid-decade, but most of these urbanites (about 60 percent) lived in the suburbs and exurbs. Metro areas in the South and West have seen the largest increases in minorities living in the suburbs, especially Atlanta, GA (for blacks); Laredo, TX (for Hispanics); and San Jose, CA (for Asians).

Minorities and Immigrants

Growing racial and ethnic diversity: During the first half of the 1990s, the minority population grew by 15 percent, compared with 3 percent growth in the non- Hispanic white population. The Asian population grew fastest (by 31 percent), followed by Hispanics (20 percent), and African Americans (8 percent). Within the next 15 years, Hispanics are projected to outnumber blacks.
Minority population concentrated in particular states and regions: Over half of all African Americans live in the South. Over half of all Asian Americans live in the West. Over half of all Hispanics live in two states (California and Texas).
Numbers of legal immigrants dropping, but still concentrated in urban areas: In 1994, about 800,000 persons were legally admitted to the United States, down from about 900,000 earlier in the decade. Over 90 percent of these new immigrants headed toward urban centers. Los Angeles and New York were the leading magnets.
Minority voting behavior: Nationally, the growing numbers of minorities do not automatically translate into political strength. Many new immigrants are not yet citizens and therefore are not eligible to vote. Minorities also tend to have lower voter registration and voter turnout rates than non-Hispanic whites. Among eligible voters (citizens age 18 or older), only 57 percent of blacks and 48 percent of Hispanics voted in the 1992 presidential election, compared with 67 percent of whites.

Copies of The United States at Mid-Decade may be purchased for $8.50 (price includes postage) through PRB's home page: www.prb.org/prb/ Or call 1-800-877-9881 or 202-483-1100. Journalists may request a free copy.

The Population Reference Bureau (PRB) is a private, nonprofit, nonadvocacy organization. Founded in 1929, PRB is a leader in providing timely, objective information on U.S. and international population trends.

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