From: H-Japan Editor
Editor's Note: This is John Campbell's response to Ira Wolf's message
about MITI Vice Minister Sakamoto's comments. Both messages first appeared
on the Dead Fukuzawa Society list and have been cross-posted here with the
authors'permission at the request of an H-Japan subscriber.
Dear Ira,
I was very interested in your posting and agree with you the speech is
significant, though my guess is, not quite as dire as you indicate. In
particular I would be astonished if Japan abrogated any of these GATT+
deals, at least not because of this doctrine. (I am right in thinking
their position on paper was to not renew the deal?)
Second, your note at the end about how now we can have discussions only
when Japan is willing is quite interesting. This is a change from an era
when we had trade discussions whether or not Japan is willing, I take
it. In that sense, this event could be seen within the context of
Japan's long irritation with "unequal treaties" or imposition on its
sovereignty. I mean, some Japanese no doubt see it that way, I'm not
saying Americans have to.
Third, I personally don't believe we have reached the end of bilateral
trade negotiations. In fact there is a good chance that, looking back
five years, this speech or the new doctrine it announces will not look
like much of an event at all, let alone a sea change. The speech itself
might be mainly another signal that Japan is going to negotiate tougher,
not that it isn't going to negotiate any more. Such ploys are not
unheard of in negotiations between nations, or companies, or married
couples for that matter.
That is not to say there has been no change. The real sea change is the
long process of the United States and Japan both becoming more "normal
nations." Normal nations can have trade negotiations, though they don't
look like that fascinating pattern that the US and Japan developed
together since the early 70s. But actually I think that good old-fashioned
US-Japan negotiations (Nichibeigata sesshou, they can be called) have some
life yet.
What I think it needs is smarter strategy on the part of the US.
I wonder what you and others experienced in trade negotiations now think
about our numerical-target strategy. Let's assume it succeeded with
regard to semiconductors, a quite significant plus. What have the minuses
been? Would there have been a better strategy? I am inclined to think
that if we hadn't gotten seduced into the numerical target dead-end as
our main strategy, we could be having a lot of interesting and useful
negotiations now.
I guess an underlying question here is, to what extent is the change in
the last several years attributable to a shift in American strategy, and
to what extent to the Japanese deciding to toughen their negotiating
position for their own reasons (more selfconfident, domestic politics,
the recession, whatever)?
I would be interested in your and other views on both these questions.
Yours, John Campbell
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