I tell them that it is tough, damn tough, and only the very very best
should do it. At that stage they love it and would not be happy if they
did not pursue it. At the end of the day they face murderous competition
although it is not as bad in some ways as it was in the late 80s when my
position in British history elicited over 125 ph.d. applicants. As for
the projections of improvement they have been spouting that for almost two
decades now. My dept., and only 8 years ago, was once 24 and is now 15
full time tenure track people. We are told that anymore we get will be
"new" positions and subject to enormous hurdles in the university admin.
This despite the fact the school has 3400 more students than in 1985, 400
more this fall apparently, and projects at continued growth for the next
decade here in the wealthiest and fastest growing region in the state.
Part-time pressures are on us, or to cut back on research and increase
teaching load, etc.
And frankly, if what I have seen in terms of pressures from above hold
elsewhere, if they are white males, they really face it. On the whole,
I would say do it because you cannot (ontologically) do anything else,
but don't plan on a job.
sean farrell moran