Subject: [EthioForum] - THE ERITREAN WAR OF AGGRESSION AGAINST ETHIOPIA: A REFLECTION ON THE ETHIO - ERITREAN CONFLICT IN RETROSPECT AND PROSPECT
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(Document 1 of 4)
By M. D.Selam - Geneva
The anguish and the suffering of the peoples of Ethiopia and Eritrea
resulting from the three decades of protracted civil wars are still
fresh in the memories of the peoples of the two nations. Since the end
of these decimating and most ruinous wars in the African continent in
1991, the two nations have been grappling with the difficult task of
reviving and rehabilitating their war-ravaged economies. In view of
this, it is extremely saddening and frustrating to see that the
peoples of the two nations are bracing for another round of conflict
and socio-economic hardship. It is all the more disturbing and
regrettable that the leaders of Eritrea remain provocative and hostile
to all their neighbours including Ethiopia. In doing so they have
clearly shown the world that their passionate love for war and
conflict remains insatiable. It is not clear so far as to why the
regime in Asmara has resorted to using war and conflict as the only
means for settling dispute. This will remain vague and ambiguous until
such time to come for the Regime in Asmara to explain its irrational
war of aggression against Ethiopia. Nevertheless, in what follows in
this paper attempt is made to reassess the ugly face and impact of the
previous wars on the socio-economic conditions of the two countries.
The article tries to shade some light on the root - causes of the
current blatant Eritrean aggression against Ethiopia. In addition, it
provides some reflections on the possible implications of the current
crises to the political, social and economic relations of the two
countries both at present and in the future.
In order to feel the pains and the sufferings caused by wars and
conflicts, one has to live at least in a war - economy. The peoples of
Ethiopia and Eritrea, particularly the present generation need no
reference books to tell their inauspicious story of the recent past.
These peoples, being the first casualties of the longest devastating
wars in Africa, are always centres of references for the ugly face
of life in a war economy. I my self lived in Asmara, the capital
city of Eritrea, during the 80's as a student when the then civil war
escalated to its climax. Thus, I may be among the living witnesses for
the utter repugnance with which the Eritrean citizens viewed war and
conflict. Although a three-decade war has resulted in horrendous loss
of human and material lives in both Ethiopia and Eritrea, its effect
on the latter was highly devastating and the anguish enormous. Besides
these damages inflicted on the society and the economy at large by the
war, there were some unique but sad stories of Eritreans. For the sake
of simplicity, however, I shall try to reflect on some of the severe
austerities faced by the Eritrean people during that time.
The supply of water, food, medicine, electricity and other basic
social services in Asmara was precarious and almost non-existent
during those years. As a result the cost of living was uniquely high
in Eritrea. For instance, whereas the rationed and the market price
for a kilo of sugar at a local (Kebele) shop and an "open market" in
Addis Ababa were 1.05 and 3.5o Ethiopian birr respectively (the
equivalent of about 0.50 and 1.5 USD at the then official exchange
rate), it was about 10 birr in the open market at Asmara. Consumer
price at Kebele shop may not give us a realistic indication of the
level of cost of living in Ethiopia. This is because, first, there was
suppressed (hidden) inflation in the country at large. Second, the
local (Kebele) shop used to serve only about 25 per cent of the urban
population of Ethiopia. On the other hand, the rationing shops (the
Kebeles) at that time were almost symbolic in Asmara with only
political significance to the Dergue regime. This shows us clearly
that the people of Eritrea did not benefit at all from government
subsidies during those years, mainly, due to deliberate and
discriminatory policies of the then Regime against the people of
Eritrea.
The price for a quintal of Teff, locally grown cereal and the staple
food in the two countries, were about 120 and 800 birr in Addis Ababa
and Asmara respectively. Similarly, the market price for a kilo of
coffee in coffee-growing regions in Ethiopia was less than 2 birr and
it was about 5 birr in the capital Addis Ababa during those days. The
price for the same quality and amount of coffee in Asmara, on average,
was about 30 birr. This was well above 10 USD at the then official
exchange rate that was also 10 times greater than its international
price. In those turbulent years the people of Eritrea survived the
socio-economic hardship mainly through family remittance from
Eritreans living abroad. Nevertheless, the unfortunate people of
Eritrea who have passed through such enormous socio-economic
difficulties in their history are still hankering for peace,
stability, prosperity and decent life at least for the generation to
come. The conspicuous lack of these important elements in Eritrea both
in the past and at present have compounded further the difficulties
that have been facing Eritrean citizens. It is sad to see that history
is repeating itself as time goes on. And that the innocent people of
Eritrea are, again, victims of the deliberate destruction and sabotage
of its own leaders. This ugly behaviour of the Eritrean regime
combined with the confluence of political, social, economic,
psychological and natural factors has exasperated further the
deplorable living conditions of the people of Eritrea.
It is not clear so far as to why the new State of Eritrea that was
severly damaged by the previous ruinous wars has become a nation of
war - mongers. What is clear, however, is that first, there is no
cause that Eritrea could advance at present through war and conflict.
Second, the already shattered economy of Eritrea is unable to sustain
war and the resulting hardship. Finally, the Eritrean war of
aggression against Ethiopia has no support and sympathy both from the
people of Eritrea and the international community.
Many of the civil wars and conflicts that have been seen in the
African continent during the 70s and the 80s were also been ignited by
the then political polarisation in the world. Thus, following the
demise of communism and the end of bi-polarity in the late 80's in
the world there were intense discussions and debates among historians,
academicians and politicians over whether the "cold war" was really
"cold" for Africa. The main cause for such debates may be the fact
that "Africa was among the first battlefronts and final casualties of
the cold war" 1. Nevertheless, there was general consensus that for
most fatal and ruinous conflicts seen in the African continent, the
share of the "Cold War" was substantial. However, it should be clear
that the burden of responsibility of some of our own leaders was
equally significant in those devastating conflicts. This is more
convincing particularly, at present, when dictatorial regimes are the
sole causes for escalating conflicts and heightening tensions in many
developing nations.
Ethiopia and Eritrea have been the spotlights of these pernicious
conflicts for the last three decades and the socio-economic
consequences of these conflicts were incalculable. According to the
World Bank estimates, the defence expenditure of Ethiopia accounted
for as much as 60-65 per cent of the recurrent budget during those
years and in most years it exceeded, by far, the combined expenditure
of the country on health, education and other social infrastructures.
These estimates do not include cost-overruns and hidden transactions.
The country's economy was devastated and Ethiopia ranked the poorest
even among the poor of the world. The end of 30 years protracted civil
war and strife in the poorest country on earth and the demise of the
dictatorial military regime of Mengistu H/Mariam in 1991 was a source
of hope and inspiration for Ethiopia and Eritrea to rebuild their
respective nations. This is a rewarding but cumbersome task.
Professor Claude Ake, in his article entitled: "A new world order: A
view from Africa", has argued that "the end of war (history) is not
a cry of triumph, but an acknowledgement of dark despair as
development remains a plausible cause and poverty a great enemy of
Africa for the 21st century" 2. The same holds true with Ethiopia and
the new Eritrea as pervasive poverty and backwardness in these
countries remain intolerable enemies of the people.
A. Post - 1991 Period
The close ties that emerged between Ethiopia and Eritrea during the
last seven years following the end of devastating conflict in 1991
might have given the world a lesson. Particularly, Africa was
conceived (now) "as more conscious than ever of the economic
underpinning of its security and marginality in an age when economic
power has come into its own and when the tragic consequences of its
perennial economic crisis are all too evident" 3. In the same vein it
was hoped that with the end of the civil war between Ethiopia and
Eritrea, the region as a whole and particularly these countries
themselves would have a chance to rebuild their nations. Of course the
end of the civil war between Ethiopia and Eritrea in 1991 has
culminated in the following important sets of radical transformations
at national, sub-regional, regional and the international levels.
These are:
The independence of Eritrea has brought about enormous implications
on geo-politics and geo-economics of the continent such that Eritrea
has transformed itself from "problematique" province of Ethiopia to an
independent state. Hence the OAU and the UN-Membership were enlarged;
the Intergovernmental Authority for Draught and Development (IGADD)
revitalised and reorganised with the presence of Eritrea as sovereign
state; peace and regional stability restored and the potential for
(viable) regional economic integration was realised, etc.
Ethiopia and Eritrea have forged strong political and economic ties
since 1991 accompanied with improved relations between the two
peoples. Similarly, domestic exchange of goods and services between
the two countries has changed into international trade. This
phenomenon has also been coupled with free movement of people, goods
and services across the borders of the two countries. Eritrea has
been using the Ethiopian currency (the birr) as medium of exchange
until recently when it introduced its own currency (the Nakfa) in
November 1997.
It was realised that harsh economic realities facing the two countries
such as problems of food-security and food-self sufficiency , high
inflation rates, mass unemployment and under-employment, shattered
social and economic infrastructures including transport and
communications sectors, etc., would be improved as a result of peace
and the resulting dividend.
In the national front, challenges facing the two countries at the
outset were almost similar in nature and proved to be daunting during
the last seven years. The reconstruction and rehabilitation of their
war-torn economies, rebuilding basic social and physical
infrastructures, rehabilitation of victims of war and restoration of
calm, mobilisation of psychologically and physically distressed labour
force , demilitarisation, the social and economic integration of
ex-soldiers, repatriation and reintegration of the displaced, etc.,
were among some of the common problems facing the two countries.
The fact that the two countries' policies were, at the out set,
focused on alleviating the abject poverty confronting their peoples
has won them the solidarity and sympathy of the international
community. The strong commitments of the two peoples to change their
ugly images of the past have also given them growing importance in
various international fora. Specially Ethiopia has radically
transformed itself from the state of hostility into a regional force
of stability. For example the role of Ethiopia for peacefully
resolving the crisis in Somalia was substantial and until today
Ethiopia is an honest broker of peace in Somalia. Despite its enormous
socio-economic problems, Ethiopia was also among a few countries of
the world that have sent their troops to abate the crisis in Rwanda in
1995. Similarly, Ethiopia has been an important catalyst and pivotal
element in the effort for peacefully resolving the ruinous civil
conflict in the Sudan.
B. Transformations in Ethiopia
At this point in time, it is important to revert to the domestic
situation of Ethiopia and its enormous transformations following the
end of civil conflict and strife in May 1991.
Unlike Eritrea, Ethiopia passed through more complex and challenging
but radical transformations in both political and economic spheres.
Political transformation of Ethiopia among other things includes: the
establishment of a democratic system based on multi-party political
pluralism, the creation of a solid foundation for the exercise of
freedom of expression, rule of law and respect for human rights,
building institutions compatible with the new system, creating
governance and administrative structure that is more suitable for the
unity of Ethiopia, putting in place constitutional and regulatory
framework for governance, transforming military installations and
institutions of the previous regime to civilian purposes , etc., are
some of the classical cases for Ethiopia's successful political
transformation.
In the economic sphere, "there were at least two major transitions in
the Ethiopian economy - a transition from war to peace with its
enormous peace dividend and a transition from tightly controlled
socialist economic management to a free market economic system" 4
(Eshetu Chole: 1991). At the heart of these two transitions was the
challenge of stabilising and reviving the nation's economy and putting
it into the path to sustained growth and sustainable development. The
emphasis was placed on attaining food security and food
self-sufficiency. To this end, pertinacious macro-economic reforms and
painful structural adjustment programmes (SAPs) were designed to help
revive and stabilise the country's economy. These market oriented
economic policies aimed at reviving and recovering the economy of the
nation have created conducive macro-economic environment. This in turn
helped Ethiopia in attracting effective foreign direct investment
(FDI) and in mobilising private domestic capital, both of which are
critical elements in fostering sound (dependable) capital formation
required for economic development. Liberalisation of the country's
trade and its regime has increased substantially its foreign exchange
proceeds. Ethiopia's foreign exchange reserve has also grown from
almost nil in 1991 to a level sufficient to cover its import
requirements for several months in 1997.
Currency realignment of 1992, coupled with other prudential fiscal and
monetary policies, has resulted in tremendous improvement in the
nation's export/import ratio for the first time in the recent history
of the Ethiopian economy. Sky-rocketing rate of inflation has been
brought down to a level less than 2 per cent in 1996 from over 25 per
cent in 1991. The share of public ownership in the various sectors
of the economy has been substantially reduced. For instance, public
ownership in the export sector alone has gone down to less than 40
per cent in 1997 from the absolute domination of state monopoly in the
sector prior to 1991. Overall the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of
Ethiopia grew at annual average rate of 7 per cent over the last
seven years from its downward trend in the 1970s' and the 1980s'. The
country has also adopted a long-term plan called Agriculture
Development-Led Industrialisation policy, the immediate objective of
which is improving the dire living standard of the mass of its
population-the peasantry.
The other most remarkable success worth mentioning in Ethiopia's
modern history is the radical change in its foreign relations and
policies. As a result of the new foreign policy of Ethiopia the
prevalent hostility and animosity of the previous regime with
neighbouring countries and with countries from afar have radically
been altered. That the old siege mentality has been replaced by one
based on mutual respect, common interest, fraternity and friendship.
This is the biggest achievement in modern Ethiopian history.
Following these enormous changes, we all hoped that hostility has
gone away from the Horn of Africa once and for all specially with the
fall of Dergue in Ethiopia and that of Siad Bare in Somalia.
Following the new foreign policy of Ethiopia, mutual trust has been
developed with all its neighbouring countries and with all countries
of the world. The relationship between Ethiopia and Eritrea had also
gained new momentum since the formal independence of the latter in
1993. Clearer forms of economic relations between the two countries
were seen in April 1995. This was the year when the two Governments
agreed to establish Free Trade Area (FTA) during the Third Round
Meeting of the Ethio - Eritrean Joint High Ministerial Commission
(JHMC), held in Asmara from 3 to 4 April 1995.
According to this agreement all tariff and non-tariff barriers on all
goods and services produced and exchanged between Ethiopia and Eritrea
will be removed. Although the net advantage resulting from this
agreement inclined to the Eritrean side, Ethiopia's conception of the
impact of this agreement was beyond short-term economic windfalls.
Otherwise it was not difficult to imagine the magnitude of net benefit
for Eritrea resulting from accessing the Ethiopian Market that is one
of the robust and continuously growing markets in the sub-region.
During the above meeting of the Joint High Ministerial Commission
(JHMC), Eritrean vice-president (and Head of the Eritrean Delegation),
Mr. Mohamud Ahmed Sherifo speaking of the joint efforts of the two
countries, has stated the following:
"... the relationships that have been developing between the two
countries (Ethiopia and Eritrea) over the past years were exemplary
and this needs to be further strengthened and developed along the
prevailing similarity of vision and understanding..."5
Similarly, addressing members of the Ethiopian Press Corps who
travelled to Asmara during the meeting of the JHMC, Isaias Afeworki,
the Eritrean President, shared the views expressed by his then
Vice-president with the same tone as follows:
"... the relationship between Ethiopia and Eritrea is not
artificial....Ethiopia and Eritrea are going on through historic
moment in their relationship and trying to regain lost opportunities.
Ethiopia and Eritrea could have been in a better place to foster
bilateral relationship and contribute to regional and continental
development had it not been for the very long and destructive war
which put the present governments of the two countries in a very
difficult phase to face the challenge..."6
The above statements of the Eritrean authorities testify, in the
clearest terms, to the importance of the growing ties between the two
countries over the last seven years.
C. Current State of Affairs and its implications:
The grimmest spot in the history of Ethiopia and Eritrea came into the
picture when Eritrean forces occupied Ethiopian territory on 6 May
1998 and devastated social and economic infrastructures in the area.
They killed indiscriminately innocent Ethiopian civilians,
particularly school children, women and the elderly by carrying out
subsequent and brutal air raids at the Ethiopian towns of Mekele and
Adigrat. The Eritrean forces also detained thousands of Ethiopian
civilians living in Eritrea under the most intolerable and inhuman
condition. They tortured and raped Ethiopians who wanted to leave for
their homeland. This is perhaps the darkest moment of the two
countries past, present and future political, social and economic
relations.
The tremor that sparked in the wake of this Eritrean naked aggression
against Ethiopia is still lingering in the minds of peace-loving
citizens of Ethiopia and Eritrea alike. Such a shock wave has also
been transmitted across Africans and the international community who
have been admiring the growing ties between the two countries. History
has created a huge opportunity for establishing strong bondage
between the two countries that once have been in destructive war and
conflict. However, the sheer fact now is that the Eritrean
authorities with their unprovoked aggression on Ethiopia have
squandered this opportunity. The ball is in the Eritrean Court to
rescue such a shameful loss of grand opportunity and the time is
ticking fast against them. Any time lag on their part may result in
dangerous consequences on present and prospective relations of the two
countries.
D. Why aggression, war and conflict again?
The natural question that one might ask and wonder about the Eritrean
war of aggression against Ethiopia may be that why did they (the
Eritrean Authorities) resort to conflict and war under the guise of
border dispute? Before contemplating the possible reasons for the
irrational and unjustifiable cause of Eritrean aggression, I found it
important to establish the following facts at least for the benefit of
the reader of this article. These are:
Eritrea can not be a force to destabilise the Horn of Africa but it
could be one single factor for regional instability and perhaps chaos.
With less than 20 million US dollars of export proceeds per annum and
with less than 3 million people, more than 85 per cent of which are
living below the internationally defined margin of absolute poverty
line, Eritrea is too tiny to be a source and a force of instability
in the Horn of Africa. In fact, at present Eritrea spends about 80
million USD (4 times lager than its export earnings) on arms purchase
[see International Herald Tribune, Friday July 24,1998]. This is by
no means a small amount and Eritrean people particularly the younger
generation are the bearer of the balance either in the form of debt or
through compromising their development requirements including their
daily basic needs. Thus, Eritrean self-aggrandisement or
self-glorification is simply a nightmare or an obsession.
Winston Churchill was quoted as saying that the Balkan region is the
one that has "a penchant for producing more history than it can
consume"7. No doubt that present day Eritrea is busy in writing and
rewriting history that it could not stand for and which it could not
consume or substantiate with reason and fact.
Resorting to war or using force for settling political, social,
economic or otherwise problems and differences is completely out of
date - "an old fashion". One has to know the changing paradigm of
international political and economic parameters governing inter-state
relations.
The plot of land which Eritrea is claiming from Ethiopia is less
important than the wider interest and benefit that it has been
enjoying since 1992 from its close ties with Ethiopia. This irrational
and baseless claim will be less important even in the future with the
rapidly changing inter-state relationships. Frances Cairncross of the
Economist Magazine, in her famous book entitled: "The Death of
Distance" has concluded that "... geography, borders, time zones - all
are rapidly becoming irrelevant to the way we conduct our business and
personal lives - the death of distance will be the single most
important economic force shaping all society over the next half
century..."8
Transitions and policy changes must be accompanied by attitudinal
changes. Otherwise any socio-political change may be only a change of
form or appearance - a mere transfiguration. Eritrean authorities have
shown clearly to the international community that they are in constant
motion of war and that their siege mentality and dictatorship are
still prevalent. The Eritrean conflicts with Yemen over Hanish
Islands; with Djibouti over a strip of coastal land; with the Sudan
and now the war of aggression against Ethiopia are clear testimonies
to the Eritrean passionate love for war and conflict. The Eritrean
authorities should know that they could be agents and victims of their
own actions and inaction at the end of the day.
One of the biggest miscalculations on the part of the Eritrean
authorities is their conception of the problem itself that the border
dispute and any aggression as a result of it will have only regional
character in Ethiopia. That is, according to them, any problem with
Region one (Tigray Administrative Region) is only a problem to the
people of that particular region. This shows the vacuum of knowledge
existing on the part of that government about the history of Ethiopia
and its peoples. Ethiopians have never been seen fragmented in their
attempt to stave-off their common enemy including poverty and
backwardness. More than anything else Ethiopians are always ready to
defend their territorial integrity at inestimable cost.
g) The other horrible gross mistake that the current Eritrean regime
has committed is the overestimation of its own self and the capacity
of that nation's most vulnerable economy to sustain war and conflict.
It may be easy for this Regime to mobilise ex-soldiers and militia
members for war; and it may be equally possible to keep them in
battlefronts through rationing of scarce basic needs - food, water,
medicine, etc. However, it is impossible to keep the entire
population of Eritrea on rationing of these elements. Eritrea that
depends for more than 98 per cent of its staple food on grains,
cereals and even coffee produced in Ethiopia is once again facing
terrible food crisis at home. As a result, the authorities in Asmara
went on demanding the public to change their pattern of consumption.
This is, no doubt, a difficult choice in itself and is also depriving
the general public from their natural right and freedom of subsisting
on something they prefer to do so.
h) The damage inflicted on the social and human capital as a result of
the Eritrean war of aggression against Ethiopia, as described above
is horrible and transcends the imagination and expectations of
peace-loving citizens of the two countries. Particularly, the
Ethiopian peoples feel betrayed by the Eritrean Regime in Asmara
because they did not anticipate atrocities as retribution for many
good things that they have done for the people of Eritrea. Such an
unforgivable historical blunder committed by the Eritrean regime, no
doubt, would remain in the collective memory of all Ethiopians that
would pass from generation to generation. This is an irreparable
criminal damage inflicted by the Eritrean authorities on the present
and future Ethio-Eritrean relations.
E. Probable "explanations" for the irrational and unjustifiable
Eritrean war of aggression against Ethiopia :
It is hard to find any particular reason or justification for the
unjustifiable Eritrean war of aggression against Ethiopia. The only
people who could give a full account and justification for such
uncivilised and barbaric behaviours must be found within the Eritrean
authorities at Asmara. Thus any reason or justification from an
outsider may be based on speculation and arguments. The followings may
be the possible reasons for an Eritrean war of aggression waged on
Ethiopia.
Internal political problems in Eritrea:
Lack of tolerance to accommodate opposition groups and absence of
political pluralism (political democratisation) in Eritrea have
created enormous divisions among the Eritreans themselves. The
long-standing division between the "Highlanders" (predominantly
Christians) and the "Lowlanders" (predominantly Muslims) is steadily
growing, creating enormous pressure on the Government of the Eritrean
Peoples Liberation Front (EPLF) - the only ruling party in Eritrea.
Rival political groups and parties have already been eliminated out of
Eritrea by the ruling party and activities of opposition groups are
banned from operating in side the country. The same dissection has
been developed in Eritrea since its independence in 1993 among
different sections of its society such that the politicians, the
educated elite, those living abroad (emigrants) and those who fought
for independence have different status. The educated elite are always
viewed as "middlemen" by the government of Isaias Afeworki- the
equivalent of "opportunistic" and those who fought for independence
are the only "true" citizens of that country. Similarly, those who
fled the country during the reign of terror of Mengistu H/Mariam are
considered as "tertiary" citizens by the EPLF and its Government. The
fact, however, is that virtually all Eritreans living abroad have been
in the forefront of supporting the struggle for independence both
financially and technically since the 1960s. "The transfer of
resources in the form of family remittance to Eritrea, during those
years, on average, was about 200 million dollars - almost 10 times
its export proceeds "9.
The deliberate policy of discrimination between the Eritreans
themselves, pursued by EPLF and its Government surprised and angered
its ardent supporters from abroad. My own friend (an Eritrean by his
nationality of origin) described present change in Eritrea as a mere
change of form and appearance as old dictator (Mengistu H/Mariam) is
now replaced by a new one (Isaias Afeworki). This is a widely
prevalent view among rational Eritreans living in Diaspora.
(Editor's Note: the end of this document is missing)
Date: Tue, 6 Oct 1998 12:51:07 -0500 (GMT-0500)
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Date: Mon, 5 Oct 1998 06:58:06 EDT
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Disclaimer: The opinion expressed is that of the writer. Ethiolist
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Subject: (fwd) War scenario
by Gabsha Khalil
Any time a devastating war between two neighboring countries, Eritrea &
Ethiopia could restart and cover our TV screens and press headlines.
According to reports coming from Ethiopia and Eritrea, the preparation and
build up of armaments seems to have been completed. Both sides are already
talking a language of war and gesturing their readiness to win it. War is
inevitable. All that remains, according to the Eritreans, is for an Ethiopian
soldier to fire the first bullet.
A simple analysis of the war scenario would be relevant at this moment.
Questions must be asked in relation to the whole episode. What will be the
objective of this war? How will it end? What will happen after the end of the
anticipated war? In my simple analysis I will try to answer these questions
in brief to allow others to follow it up.
There is no regime that goes to war simply for the sake of it. There must be
an objective to be achieved. Whether such objectives are based on justice and
fairness to others is a different issue all together. For the TPLF/EPRDF
government of Ethiopia the declared objective is to drive out the Eritrean
forces from the Bademme, Sheraro and Zalambessa areas which were under
TPLF/Tigray Killel administration until May 1998. For the EPLF/PFDJ
government of Eritrea the declared objective is to defend Eritrean
sovereignty over all the disputed areas until a peaceful and mutually agreed
resolution is reached.
So if we take the above official (diplomatic) positions, both sides have
justifiable reasons to convince their respective public opinions that their
war is actually to defend the national sovereignty of their countries. In the
absence of free press, debate, free political association and genuine
democracy, the peoples of both countries will certainly be dragged into the
nonsense bloodshed. A significant number of Ethiopians and Eritreans are
currently being driven by their emotions and ill-defined heroism and
nationalism to support their antagonistic regimes, hence playing to the war
tune.
I am one of those who believe that the whole issue goes far beyond the
so-called border conflict. To sum it up in one sentence: It is a power
struggle between the EPLF and the TPLF. Both groups are well known for their
hegemonic attitudes and will do every thing, including going to war, to
achieve the unachievable. In fairness to the TPLF, at present it is the EPLF
who is fighting to continue dominating the TPLF (and through it Ethiopia)
while the later is seeking to ensure that this can not be or continue to be
and fighting to make the EPLF leadership understand that partnership should
be based on equality.
Only god may have the accurate answer for this question. But I can make an
assumption based on my observations and readings as an Eritrean opposed to
the despotic regime of Mr. Afeworki. The TPLF and EPLF led regimes will go to
this war knowing that their very existence will be shaped by its outcome. No
U-turns. To be or not to be is the case at hand. EPLF has created and
nurtured the TPLF (my respect for the Tigrayan hard working people is
unshaken by this fact). Afeworki can not afford to see the later go out of
control be it in the economic or political spectrums. After seven years of
successful ethno-centric governance and determined process of recreating
Ethiopia after 100 years of Amharisation, the TPLF led regime has long ago
left the stage when it had to receive policy dictates from the office of Mr.
"President" in Asmara, often over the phone as was described by Ato Meles.
The days of such quasi relations have gone unnoticed by Ato Issayas who was
busy bullying his own people and his other neighbors. Afeworki is a
well-known gambler. He will attempt to turn the clock back and subjugate the
Tigrean elite once again. Whether he will succeed this time or fail it
remains to be seen.
Back to the question "how will the war end"? As I said above, there is no
easy answer to this question. Will Eritrea win it or Ethiopia is not the
issue here.
I have always argued against my fellow Eritreans who say we won the 30 years
war of independence against the Ethiopian aggressors. Because my measurement
of any war's outcome is quite different to some of my fellow countrymen and
women.
It is true we have fought against the Ethiopian occupation of our country
and paid the dearest price with dignity. We have lost our young brothers and
sisters. Over 700 (seven hundred) Eritrean villages were wiped out of
existence. The untold atrocities committed in our once peaceful villages like
Oona, Ad Yassin, Hergiggo, Berekenteya, Agordat, Aylet-Gemhot etc. are ever
lasting memories of our relationship with the previous Ethiopian rulers. My
argument is the 30 years of war was lost by both Ethiopia and Eritrea. In
Eritrea we kept dreaming of a country free of atrocities we dreamed of
creating a country where justice and democracy prevailed we dreamed of
rebuilding Eritrea once the occupiers have left. Instead, the 30 years of war
for liberation resulted in a devil called Issayas Afeworki and his ruling
clique within the EPLF (we should be careful of assuming that the EPLF and
Eritreans in general are one homogenous group, because they are not). For the
last seven years the Eritrean people who paid the highest price for his
liberation has been living in an open prison. Over half a million refugees who
left their war torn villages are still unable to return to their homes and
farms, living in a very appalling conditions in refugee camps in Eastern
Sudan.
The millions of dollars contributed by the Eritrean Diaspora during the
struggle for liberation are still unaccounted for. Since its creation in the
late 1970s, the EPLF has never stopped milking the Eritrean people inside and
outside Eritrea under different pretexts. It may be the case that many
non-Eritreans do not know the fact that all Eritreans, including myself, who
do not contribute a percentage of their income i.e.2%, 10%, $100+ for the
handicapped etc. etc. (latest $1000+ for the current war effort) are not
recognized as citizens and would have no rights under the EPLF regime. In
other words, to be an Eritrean you have to be an EPLF loyalist and make
regular financial contribution which no one dare asks where it goes. The very
disabled fighters in whose name the EPLF has been milking poor Eritrean
pockets were killed and wounded when they attempted to demand the regime to
better their appalling conditions in the outskirts of Asmara just after the
independence. The fate of hundreds of Eritrean schoolteachers who opposed and
challenged the health of the EPLF curriculum, which is nothing but an EPLF
propaganda that does no justice to the young Eritreans' right to education, is
still unknown. Today many Eritreans homes are insecure more than ever. What
we Eritreans call "night visitors" are terrorizing the whole population to
the extent that no one can trust any one any more. This is common even within
one family member. EPLF informers and agents have infiltrate even families.
Many Western journalists are often misled to assume that Eritreans are behind
their regime in every aspect of their life because the people can not say
anything but good about the regime to spare their lives from the "night
visitors". I see all these as an outcome of the 30 years of war for
liberation, which make me feel that we still have not won the bloody war. Yes
we have won back our beloved small country but lost it again to another
despotic and rootless regime, the only difference this time is that it is not
Italian, British or Ethiopian military dictators, but it is an Eritrean
regime.
I stated the above argument to conclude that both Eritreans and Ethiopians will lose the
war. The two regimes will seek each other out.
The outcome of the current conflict will shape not just the Ethio-Eritrean
relationships but also the way each of the countries is governed. The danger
is if both or one of the antagonists is crushed there will be a power vaccume
which could threaten the very existence of the countries. Given the plurality
of their societies and the deep -rooted distrust among the different ethnic
groups within each country, Ethiopia and Eritrea could at best be Somalised
and at worst may fragment into small sultanates, emirates, chiefdoms and
kingdoms or vice-versa.
The other danger is (again in fairness to the TPLF) if the EPLF comes out of
this conflict/war victorious, we will face even greater challenges of making
Mr. Afeworki understand that aggression and arrogance do not pay. (This
should not be understood that the disputed areas are Ethiopian. They are
disputed areas and their ultimate status should be resolved peacefully. The
fact that they are disputed areas however, they do not necessarily have to be
occupied by the EPLF, which is why we disagree with our despotic regime).
End of Document 2 of 4
Beginning of Document 3 of 4
Date: Tue, 6 Oct 1998 12:08:47 -0500 (GMT-0500)
---------- Forwarded message ----------
**********************************************************************
Disclaimer: The opinion expressed is that of the writer. Ethiolist
does not take any responsibility for the content of the e-mail.
EthioForum - Open forum for news, discussions and free expression of
ideas! !!!! http://www.ethiolist.com
**********************************************************************
Ethiopia says:" We Are Prepared To Stand Alone If Need Be For
Principles and For Our National Dignity"!!!
Please enjoy this clear and loud message!
MINISTER OF FOREIGN AFFAIRS OF THE
FEDERAL DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC OF ETHIOPIA
AT THE
FIFTY-THIRD SESSION OF THE
UNITED NATIONS GENERAL ASSEMBLY
UNITED NATIONS, NEW YORK
1 OCTOBER 1998
I would like, first of all, to extend to you, Mr. President, the Ethiopian
delegation's congratulations on your well deserved unanimous election as
President of the 53rd session of the General Assembly. We are fully
confident that under your guidance the work of this session of the General
Assembly will be a resounding success.
I should also like to express our appreciation to the outgoing President
of the General Assembly for a most effective guidance he provided to the
52nd session of the General Assembly and for the most valuable
contribution he has made in this regard.
We are indeed deeply indebted to our Secretary-General, Mr. Kofi Annan,
who has tried to inject new vitality into the United Nations and who has,
under difficult circumstances, continued to make a difference at the helm
of the Organization. We appreciate very keenly, in particular, what the
Secretary-General has been doing to ensure that the voice of all those
whose points of views needed to be heard is heard, and that there is a
more effective co-operation than hitherto between the United Nations and
the Organization of African Unity. I wish in this regard, to commend him
with great satisfaction for what can only be called a historic report he
has submitted on the causes of conflict and the promotion of durable
peace and sustainable development in Africa. This report by the
Secretary-General, for which he has deservedly already been congratulated
by many, raises all those issues which are vital for the future of Africa
and treats them with so much frankness and transparency that it is only my
hope that we will all have the necessary resolve and commitment to follow
up its recommendations and ensure their implementation.
Mr. President,
We in Africa have made over the past few years tremendous efforts to
change Africa's image and reality. Despite the apparent slips of the
past few months, what has been achieved in our Continent since the early
1990s can hardly be underestimated. This applies both to activities in
the economic area as well as to the work for peace and stability in our
Continent.
The past few years have shown quite vividly how most African countries,
including my own, Ethiopia, have shown the necessary determination to
create the domestic climate conducive to economic growth and development.
There is today hardly any country in Africa which has not acknowledged
that the economic future of countries lies in market-based and private
sector-driven economic transformation, and which has not taken the
appropriate steps to that end. It is indeed gratifying to note that the
results, certainly in my own country, have been encouraging.
However, Mr. President, it is hardly disputable that our performance in
the economic area has not, by any means, measured up to our expectations
and has been far below what is needed to prevent hopelessness and despair
in our Continent, specially among the younger generation. Although the
reasons that provide part of the explanation for this may not be wanting,
it is nonetheless very obvious that the well known limitations we face in
international economic co-operation, in particular, in trade as well as in
connection with the debt burden constitute the major impediments to
Africa's economic regeneration. Consequently, the Secretary-General
has reiterated in his report I referred to earlier, that there is indeed
an urgent need for political will, to ensure sustainable growth and
development in Africa, not only on the part of we Africans but also on
the part of the international community as a whole.
Mr. President,
We in Africa have also, in the past few years, made every effort, in
particular through sub-regional organizations, to work for peace and to
prevent and contain conflicts. In this regard, the establishment by the
OAU of a Mechanism for the Prevention, Management and Resolution of
Conflicts in Africa has been a major step we have taken and our
achievement on this score over the past few years can hardly be
underestimated.
In our own sub-region, we have continued to exert the necessary effort for
peace in the Sudan as well as to assist the people of Somalia achieve
national reconciliation and to establish a broad-based government and a
central authority. In both cases, while success has not been easy, the
efforts we are making have nonetheless continued because of the
conviction, including on the part of our partners in the international
community, that there is no effective alternative to these efforts carried
out at the sub-regional level through the mechanism of IGAD.
It is however very clear, Mr. President, that these gains, however small,
over the past few years in the area of peace and security in Africa have
come to be tested very severely in the past few months. Developments
in the Great Lakes Region, most particularly in the Democratic Republic of
Congo, indeed represent sources of some of the serious concerns we have in
this regard. Nevertheless, we remain hopeful that a way out of this
looming danger in the Great Lakes Region would be found based on full
respect for the sovereignty and territorial integrity of all countries of
the region including the Democratic Republic of Congo, and on the full
recognition of the security concerns of all countries of the region. It
is Ethiopia's firm conviction that there is no alternative as a
guarantee for peace and amity between states to the scrupulous observance
by all of the principles of international law governing inter-state
relations.
However, the greatest danger for peace, in this connection, Mr. President,
is not so much the violation of international law per se, but the response
by the international community in the face of such violations. When the
international community, for whatever reason, fails to respond to
aggression and to violations of international law with the required
indignation and resolve, then aggressors would be sent, wittingly or
unwittingly, the message that the principles of international law are not
there to underpin the peace and that laws are there to be violated with
impunity.
This has been, Mr. President, the lesson that we have drawn from one of
the major recent disappointments that we have had in the area of peace and
security in Africa. I am, of course, referring here to the naked
aggression by the State of Eritrea against Ethiopia on 12 May 1998.
Despite the efforts by various parties, this aggression continues to
portend the outbreak of a full-scale war between the two countries because
of Eritrea's intransigence that the peaceful resolution of the crisis
must be linked to Ethiopia's acceptance of the loss of its sovereignty
over a part of its territory and to the consequent appeasement of Eritrea
and the dangerous impression the international community is conveying that
aggression entails not costs to the aggressor but rewards.
Mr. President,
The aggression committed by the Eritrean regime against Ethiopia is
unprecedented in more ways than one. First, it is aggression, which was
not only unprovoked, but was also carried out against a state which, until
the day of the aggression, was a true friend of Eritrea, probably the only
true friend that Eritrea had until that day of infamy when it decided to
stab Ethiopia in the back. Secondly, this is an aggression which was
designed, paradoxical as it may seem, to impose Eritrea's will and
policy on a country which is in no shape or form suited to play second
fiddle to Eritrea. It is quite possible that Ethiopia's preoccupation
with development and with the fight against poverty over the past several
years might have created the wrong impression in the minds of Eritrea's
leaders with a fixation on muscle-flexing and military might.
Mr. President,
Conscious of its responsibility not only for its own people but also for
peace and the image of our sub-region, Ethiopia has exerted, and continues
to exert, the maximum possible effort to ensure the peaceful resolution of
this crisis which was created solely by the Eritrean aggression against
Ethiopia and the subsequent occupation of Ethiopian territory. Our full
co-operation with the various efforts made in this regard ----ranging from
the US-Rwandan facilitation to the on-going effort by the OAU----attest
to the maximum self-restraint that Ethiopia has demonstrated under
difficult circumstances and in the complete absence of a rational and
reasonable partner for peace on the part of Eritrea since the early days
of the aggression.
Mr. President,
The origin of the crisis between Ethiopia and Eritrea is not any bilateral
dispute between the two countries. Rather, it is the result of aggression
--- an unprovoked aggression which constitutes a flagrant violation of
international law. To many this Eritrean aggression against Ethiopia has
been incomprehensible. But to those like us who are familiar with the
internal Eritrean situation the behaviour of the Eritrean Government stems
directly from the total absence of the normal characteristics of a state
in Eritrea. The absolute failure of institutions, the absence of the rule
of law, and the lack of accountability can explain the aggressive
behaviour of the Eritrean leadership towards its neighbours ever since the
establishment of Eritrea as an independent state. As a result, these
factors also constitute the single most important cause for the current
crisis between Ethiopia and Eritrea.
The fact that, Mr. President, aggression was committed against Ethiopia by
Eritrea has been indisputable for sometime now. This has been the
position and conclusion of all those who have so far tried, under
difficult circumstances of Eritrea's obduracy and lack of civility, to
make their good offices available as facilitators and as brokers for peace
in this conflict. No one who has been intimately involved with these
various efforts for peace between Ethiopia and Eritrea would fail to see
that Eritrea has never ever been prepared to give peace a chance. No one
who has been close to the efforts that have been made so far to resolve
the crisis peacefully would fail to have noted not only the absolute
disregard for peace on the part of the Eritrean authorities, but also
their attempt to conceal the truth, their lack of transparency and the
sheer failure to demonstrate a minimum of decency towards all those who
have tried to help. Nevertheless, it is indeed regrettable that the
conclusion appears to have been drawn by some, jettisoning principles,
that in the face of the known irrationality bordering on the insane in
Eritrea, what needs to be done is to lean on Ethiopia, the victim of the
aggression, to compromise on principles and to agree to the appeasement of
the aggressor and to reward aggression.
Two things must not be overlooked by the international community with
regard to the enormous implications of Eritrea's aggression against
Ethiopia for international law and for the future of peace and
stability in our sub-region. First, it must be recognized that this is
precisely a trap laid by the Eritrean authorities in the form of a
deliberately designed game of chicken calculated, these authorities hope,
to end with rewarding aggression. Needless to say, Ethiopia refuses to
play according to the Eritrean script, and we call upon the international
community to take the same resolute stand.
Secondly, it should never be assumed, Mr. President, that through
appeasement, war would be averted and that durable peace can be ensured in
our part of the world --- a part of the world which because of its recent
history although admittedly needs peace most cannot be expected to pay any
price to avoid war in particular by accommodating aggressors. Clearly it
stands to reason and history has amply demonstrated that war cannot in the
long run be averted by appeasing aggressors.
It is a total illusion, Mr. President, to believe that Eritrea would be
tamed and we are saying this from experience. One just has to look at
Eritrea's track record of the past few years in our area. Eritrea's
propensity to aggression has manifested itself first in its belligerent
attitude towards its neighbours over the past seven years culminating in
its most extreme form of aggression against Ethiopia. In the face of
such destructive attitude one may ask why such belligerence by Eritrea was
tolerated for so long. The answer is that we somehow entertained the hope
that since transition from leading a liberation movement to running an
independent state would take time and that the Eritrean leadership would
mature over time as it is the case in almost all other similar
circumstances. But our hopes were finally dashed on 12 May 1998. In
light of this, we have absolutely no doubt that if we failed telling the
Eritrean authorities in no uncertain terms that their unruly behavour
cannot be tolerated any longer the result will be even greater instability
and interminable conflict in the sub-region with enormous implications for
peace and stability in our continent.
That is why Mr. President, the Ethiopian Government and people firmly
believe that this flagrant violation of international law by a small
nation which is totally blinded with arrogance and led astray by a
leadership which has concluded that brinkmanship would always pay should
not be left unchallenged. On our part whether the international
community stands with us or not, on the fundamental principle of
preserving international law and resisting aggression, regardless of the
consequences, we are prepared to stand alone if need be for principles as
well as for our national dignity. This, Mr. President, as we all remember
would not be the first time for Ethiopia to be in such a situation. In
this connection, one is reminded of Emperor Haile Selassie and the League
of Nations following Italian aggression against Ethiopia in 1936. The
measure proposed at the time against Italy was the imposition of an oil
embargo which certainly would have been effective in crippling Italian
aggression against Ethiopia. Nevertheless, since appeasing Facist Italy
was the preferred option for the great powers of the time the proposal was
rejected. Instead, in a clear demonstration of injustice unprecedented
in the history of inter-state conflicts an arms embargo was imposed by the
League on both the aggressor, Italy, and the victim of aggression,
Ethiopia. As a result we all know and history has recorded that this
dismal failure of the League of Nations to prevent aggression was one of
the causes which brought about the demise of the Organization and later
contributed to the outbreak of the Second World War. It is Ethiopia's
hope that this shameful episode would not be repeated by the international
community today, although the nature and scale of the challenge Ethiopia
is facing today is radically different and is not comparable to that it
faced during those difficult days on the eve of the Second World War.
Mr. President,
The United Nations is still grappling with various issues affecting
international peace and security around the world. Among these the
situation in Angola is a cause for serious concern to us. The behavour of
UNITA clearly constitutes a dangerous trend which might lead to the
derailment of the peace process, namely, the full implementation of the
Lusaka Protocol. We urge the United Nations to exert maximum effort to
save the fragile situation in Angola and ensure the establishment of
lasting peace and stability in that country.
On the situation in the Middle East we hope every effort will be exerted
towards the full implementation of the Oslo Accords with a view to
establishing durable peace in the area.
With regard to the question of Western Sahara it is our earnest hope that
the proposed referendum on the future of the territory will be held as
soon as possible to bring about the final and successful settlement of the
issue.
Mr. President,
As a founding member of this Organization Ethiopia has always been
prepared to contribute to the best of its ability to all efforts designed
to make the UN and its various organs more effective and more
representative.
Accordingly, my country attaches great importance to the ongoing exercises
aimed, among other things, at reforming and restructuring the Security
Council. A satisfactory, fruitful and expeditious outcome of this process
is indeed vital for the effectiveness, credibility and, I might add, for
the enhanced legitimacy of the world body.
For Ethiopia, and for all those who have trust in the efficacy of
multilateralism, there is no alternative to the United Nations. The UN
should, therefore, be protected and what it stands for --- whether in the
areas of economic co-operation, disarmament and human rights ---- promoted
and fostered with all the dedication and commitment. In this endeavour
Ethiopia will continue to be second to none in discharging its
responsibilities to the UN in this and other activities of the
Organization.
I, therefore, wish to conclude by renewing Ethiopia's commitment to the
United Nations and to what it stands for.
I thank you.
EthioForum
End of Document 3 of 4
Beginning of Document 4 of 4
Date: Tue, 6 Oct 1998 11:58:47 -0500 (GMT-0500)
----------------------------Original message----------------------------
Forwarded message
=======> "E E D N -- A Home away from Home" <=======
====> ETHIOPIA-REQUEST@HOME.EASE.LSOFT.COM <====
Dear Ato Deneke HMariam,
you have distributed an article from the ERITREAN PROPAGANDA MACHINARY in
Asmara. It is really a distorting information when you deliberatly try to
inform all ethiopians that the article originates from ETHIO.COM. There is
NO article of this sort in ethio.com.
You got it from "Source : Eritrea Profile Vol. 5 No. 29 September 26,
1998 " present in the eritrean network information center.
G.G. Mekonnen
=====================================================================
-----Urspr|ngliche Nachricht-----
=======> "E E D N -- A Home away from Home" <=======
N.B.: An interesting article from Ethio.com if you have time
to read.
The reason why I am prefacing my article by the above paragraph is to
impress the readers that I know Ethiopia and Ethiopians fairly well. I am
familiar with the socio-political setting of the country starting from the
empire state, to the era of the Derg all the way to the establishment of
the TPLF government in 19" and afterwards. In general I feel I am in a
position to put my impressions on the current TPLF leadership.
I wanted to write this article after witnessing the recent provocations,
preposterous lies, character assassinations and deceptions that is being
labelled against Eritrea and Eritreans by the Woyane radio and TV, by their
cadres and diplomats especially their "loose mouth" foreign minister-Seyoum
Mesfin.
Over the past century or so Ethiopia has been ruled by Haileselassie which
was replaced by the Derg. Both these regimes had all along been challenged
by Eritrea and later by different Ethiopian opposition groups main amongst
them the TPLF which worked hand in hand with the EPLF. Both these
organisations in the course of their struggle inflicted heavy defeat on the
Derg army.
Since 1988 the Derg regime thought that it would somehow prevail and that
Eritrea and Tigray would eventually be subdued. After the famous battle of
Afabet in March of 1988, however, it began to realize that its grip on
Eritrea was fading; it more or less came to the conclusion that the
liberation of Eritrea as being a fait accompli and began to openly discuss
as to how Eritrea would be free. The 1989 attempted coup against Mengistu
as well as the 1990 capture of Massawa by the EPLF and the advances by the
TPLF put the final nail into the coffin.
In the mean time the Ethiopian ruling class became very resentful of the
TPLF advances; They began to realize that their grip to power was slipping
rapidly.
The inevitable happened in 19" - the Derg was overthrown and the TPLF
formed a government. Their resentment intensified when the TPLF government
redrew the provisional boundaries by awarding themselves a big chunk of
fertile land that originally belonged to Gondar and Wollo; the entire
country was stunned at this unilateral declaration of annexation. Towards
the end, most of the Derg servants rallied behind Mengistu-the man who
murdered their leaders, relatives and friends; the man who liquidated their
"heroes" the generals of the Derg army. In the end many Derg sympathisers
realized that they could no longer challenge the EPLF and TPLF. Their
remaining option was to plant seeds of hatred and animosity among these two
groups. Thanks to the latest series of TPLF glaring errors adventures and
miscalculations, they seem to have momentarily succeeded.
In May 19" the TPLF-EPRDF took the helms of power in Ethiopia (actually the
name EPRDF is a misnomer; for all intents and purposes the TPLF is the real
power in Ethiopia. The others are nothing but satellite parties and would
probably secede from the "coalition" if and when the opportunity arises).
From the time the TPLF entered Addis Ababa they were extremely unpopular.
One day after they took power there was a mass demonstration in Addis Ababa
against the new leadership; the demonstration was partly organized by the
former Mengistu's henchmen. Scores of people have died and the new
authorities had no choice but to declare a dusk to dawn curfew. This is in
distinct contrast to the liberation of Eritrea where the leadership of the
latter lifted all curfews and other restrictions for the first time in
thirty years or so.
The TPLF authorities had to heavily depend on local EPLF supporters. We
took it upon ourselves to assist them in any way we can sometimes at the
expense of compromising our safety. We felt that assisting the TPLF was
tantamount to expressing our solidarity with the Provisional Government of
Eritrea. At the same time the TPLF leadership was facilitating the
formation of different Eritrean professional, civic and other associations
in Addis Ababa and other parts of Ethiopia. While Eritreans were raising
funds for the rehabilitation of their new country, they were equally
enthusiastic doing the same for various causes of the new government's
program.
In order to maintain law and order, former Kebele officers in urban centres
of Ethiopia had to be replaced by Peace and Stability Committee. The entire
Kebele and government bureaucracy were dominated by elements extremely
hostile to the new government. At the same time Addis Ababa was in a
virtual state of anarchy with weapons and grenades in the possession of
disbanded and demoralized Derg soldiers and others. In order to put this
explosive situation under control the TPLF leadership felt that the newly
formed Peace and Stability Committee must, by and large, be composed of
would be loyalists; the TPLF leadership again heavily depended on
Eritreans. It saddens me to see that Eritreans residing in Ethiopia who
contributed immensely towards consolidating TPLF's hold to power and to the
maintenance of law and order are now humiliated and labelled as security
risks, agents of Shabiya and then declared persona non grata.
After consolidating its power the TPLF leadership began "to address
pressing economic issues" facing the nation. The TPLF followed two distinct
economic policies within Ethiopia; one for the nation other than Tigray and
another for the latter alone. Some of the economic rehabilitation measures
that were undertaken in Tigray were quite standard and probably
satisfactory; these include the rehabilitation of social infrastructures
such as schools, clinics, health centers and hospitals. However others were
not; they seem to be grandeur projects that require substantial capital
outlays with marginal benefits. As a foundation for the future
establishment of the University of Mekelle, two colleges, the college of
Business as well as the college of Agricultural and Engineering were
established. The Ethiopian Commission for Higher Education, a body that
oversees the smooth operation of higher education institutions in the
country was never consulted. The Commission had legitimate concerns as this
new undertaking was not properly integrated into the nation's educational
plan. No prior preparation was made; no library, insufficient textbook,
mediocre teaching staff and hardly any building. Some Ethiopians began to
refer these institutions as Open Air Colleges. Many professionals openly
refused to participate in the preparation and implementation of this
grandeur project. Some of us, despite some misgivings assisted in the
preparation of curriculum and related assignments. This was out of our wish
to see the TPLF leadership succeed in its endeavour.
The most serious flaw appeared when the TPLF government launched its most
grandeur plan- a plan that aims at industrialising Tigray "overnight". The
project seems to be similar to the disastrous "Great leap forward" plan of
China that was initiated by the country's communist party in 1958. This
industrial policy was simplistic, amateurish and probably dangerous. First
the resources earmarked for this, though substantial by national standards,
were still limited. These resources could have been efficiently utilized in
alternate undertaking such as the development of the agricultural sector,
the development of handicraft and small scale industries as well as other
more realistic and feasible projects. It should be noted that all the fund
was secured from the central treasury without due process to standard
budgetary allocation.
This ambitious and "daring" industrial undertaking included the
simultaneous establishment of a cement factory in Makelle, textile factory
in Adwa, a brewery, with the collaboration of a Dutch company in Abi Adi,
Tembien. With regards to the latter, TPLF cadres were openly bragging that
they would capture the entire beer market of Northern Ethiopia and Eritrea
thereby dwarfing the Melotti factory at Asmara. Along with these three,
there were also other grandeur "white elephant" projects.
Besides being simplistic and unrealistic, the so called industrialization
of Tigray had other flaws. First the TPLF decision to undertake these
establishments was inconsistent with the national plan and contrary to the
government's commitment made to the IMF-World Bank that they would
privatize all state owned enterprises. On the one hand the IMF-World Bank
imposed structural adjustment programmes were being implemented in earnest
in other regions of Ethiopia. State owned agricultural, industrial,
construction and service sector establishments were being privatized
resulting in extreme hardship to thousands of employees, their families and
other dependents. On the other hand the already mentioned grandeur
industrial establishments to be constructed in Tigray were government owned
and operated.
The above establishments were undertaken without even attempting to
consider the most elementary form of feasibility study. Issues that ought
to be considered in the establishment of industrial enterprises where never
entertained. Availability of inputs, appropriateness of sites,
marketability of outputs, availability of skilled labour, appropriateness
of technology, environmental factors etc. were not considered.
Basic infrastructures that are necessary for smooth transport of inputs and
final products were not available. Also the TPLF leadership had little
regard for standard accounting and audit process. Millions of Birr continue
to be squandered for these establishments. On the average it may take three
to five years between the inception of an industrial establishment like the
cement and the commencement of production. The TPLF wanted to establish
such factories in a matter of months. In general TPLF leadership does not
seem to differentiate between possibility and feasibility. Given sufficient
resources it is possibility to erect any establishment at any time and
place. But with extreme resource constraints, alternate investment sectors
ought to be considered. TPLF leadership did not take this into
consideration and seem to recklessly squander public money.
One of the most laughable and outrageous industrial projects was a proposed
establishment of Paper and Pulp factory in the Maichew area. An engineer, a
prominent biologist and myself were asked to participate in the preparation
of the project. The engineer and myself asked for clarification as to
whether policy makers are aware that the major input in the Paper and Pulp
factory is the availability of forests and trees. A TPLF cadre present at
the meeting stated that he is definitely aware of this. I then stated that
the Maichew area is by no means an appropriate site for the establishment
of Paper and Pulp factory as there is hardly any tree in the vicinity. The
TPLF cadre then gave us an answer that was difficult to comprehend. He
stated he is aware of a new tree variety that is appropriate for arid zone
areas like Maichew; the seeds would be imported from abroad immediately,
seedling will then be germinated, planted, grown and one can easily grow
trees and "make forests"! The trees will be used as inputs in the proposed
establishment. We strongly argued that this is an exercise in futility; I
even stated that this idea should never have been entertained by
responsible policy makers. The TPLF cadre was adamant; he stated that funds
were already earmarked to undertake preliminary study; he asked me if I
could go to Maichew and make a study on labour supply in Maichew area; he
offered me perdiem and honorarium. I declined the offer and never showed up
at their meeting again. Later I came to understand that they were still
considering the idea in earnest and that funds are earmarked for the
purpose.
At a national level some of the economic policy of the TPLF government is
leading the country down hill. As stated above, they had agreed to
undertake a very painful structural adjustment programme as prescribed by
the IMF and World Bank and as a result thousands continue to suffer
miserably. I was given an assignment by the World Bank to study the social
and distributional consequences of the structural adjustments in Addis
Ababa and in Makelle in 19". I was able to find that one out of every three
residents are poor and that massive funds have to be earmarked in order to
alleviate the plight of the poor. All this is the result of a blind
adherence and complete submission to the instructions of IMF-World Bank.
Because of its submission the TPLF government began to receive billions of
Birr in the form of grants and loans, especially the latter. The country
was already debt ridden as a result of the Derg's military adventures and
this continued to pile up after 19". Nowadays large portion of the
country's foreign exchange earning is earmarked for debt servicing; mainly
for payments on the interest from debt-not the principal. Initially the
annual growth rate of the economy was about six percent; however this
growth is apparent than real as it is driven by foreign loans and not based
on private investment. As soon as the loans dry up what will happen is
anybody's guess.
Funds continue to be wrongly earmarked. Instead of investing on carefully
chosen and priority sectors, the government continues to squander its
limited resources on grandeur projects. Failure to earmark appropriate
funds for the prevention of HIV-AIDS has resulted in the high incidence of
the latter. About 3 million Ethiopians are suffering from this deadly
virus; the figures continue to increase at an exponential rate; the city of
Adama (Nazreth) in Southern Ethiopia has one of the highest incidences of
HIV-AIDS in the world.
The agricultural policy is also far from satisfactory. Recently the TPLF
government introduced an extension package programme where farmers are
believed to have been provided with better seeds, fertilizers, chemicals
and implements. Later they concocted some statistical data claiming that
productivity per acre has increased several folds and that Ethiopia has not
only become self sufficient but also a net exporter of cereals. The
international media-VOA, BBC, Radio Germany and others began to applaud the
TPLF government's achievement in food self sufficiency and for being able
to export grains to nearby Kenya. Six months later the Relief and
Rehabilitation Commission of Ethiopia announced that millions of Ethiopians
are on the verge of starvation and urgently requested the world community
for thousands of tons of food aid. What a farce! To play with statistics is
the highest form of deception and hypocrisy.
Because of this continuous adventures and mishaps the TPLF leadership is
becoming more and more isolated even among their satellite parties.
Whenever they move from an area to another, to and from the airport they
are heavily protected by soldiers with light and heavy weapons; the entire
traffic flow on their routes is blocked, cars are rerouted and at times
business disrupted. Intimidation and harassment by security agents is
common. At one of his press conferences the current prime minister was
commenting on the success of one of the local "elections". He stated that
he had personally visited one of the voting precincts and noted that the
electorate was supportive and enthusiastic.
When asked as to which election precinct he visited and whether he spoke to
the voters, his response was quite revealing; he said he had to do it
incognito!
In this article I have tried to record some of my observations and
experiences with the TPLF government between 19"-1995. I was made to note
my impressions after observing the recent war of aggression of the TPLF
government against its neighbour and probably a natural ally. I was at
first shocked at the lies and deceptions of the TPLF propaganda through
their radio, TV, their cadres and their diplomats.
However when I relate my experience with the TPLF as expressed in the
article, with their current state of behaviour and their neighbour, and
their treatment of innocent Eritreans residing in Ethiopia, I am not
surprised at all. These people are nothing but vicious and mean spirited.
A political organization like TPLF that depends on lies and deceptions
fails to comprehend that living in harmonious relation with a neighbouring
country has a lot of advantage-both political, economic, social and
psychological. They appear to have no vision; they know that they are
unpopular in Ethiopia and as of recent in Tigray. They have now declared
war on their only remaining natural ally.
Through their deceptions they may have gained some psychological
satisfaction. However, this is nothing but a short run phenomenon. In the
long run, they are likely to be in deep trouble. The Ethiopian people
including that of Tigray will be aware of their policies to the degree they
could no longer accept them and rise against them.
Will the International Community foot the bill for Ethiopia's reckless
military adventure?
There is a perverted logic coming out from Addis Ababa these days.
Ethiopia's leaders are unabashedly telling their people that the
"international community will support the military offensive" that they
intend to unleash against Eritrea. What is more, they are falsely claiming
that "Ethiopia will obtain substantial external assistance to re-build what
may be destroyed in the war".
This sickening argument first appeared in the September (1998) issue of the
EPRDF weekly paper: "Revolutionary Democracy". But the TPLF ideologue and
politburo member, Abaye Tsehaye, has repeated the same convoluted logic in
an interview with Radio Tigray on Wednesday this week. In his words; "...We
have made all the necessary preparations, military and otherwise. I have no
doubts whatsoever that our aim of teaching Eritrea an unforgettable lesson,
of annihilating the enemy, will be fully accomplished. ...Tigray is in the
front- line and the war may entail physical destruction to our factories.
But we shall solicit assistance for reconstructing what may be
destroyed...".
Ethiopia's intransigence is pushing a border conflict that is so easily
amenable to a peaceful and legal solution to the brink of a full-scale war.
In the first place, the skirmishes that occurred between May 6 and 12 in
the Badme area were triggered by the unprovoked attack of Ethiopian army
contingents on Eritrean patrol units. It was also Ethiopia that launched
the first air strike against Asmara on June 5, 1998. And, it has been weeks
now since Ethiopia's leaders - from senior EPRDF leaders including
President Negaso Gidada down to all the army Generals - have been bragging
about their full and meticulous preparations "now well-known to friend and
foe alike" to launch a full-scale war against Eritrea.
Apparently, Ethiopia's leaders have a delusion of their military might.
They seem to have contracted a fatal fixation of "teaching Eritrea a
lesson" and, in the words of Abaye Tsehaye, "installing a new government in
Asmara" that will be at the beck and call of Addis Abeba. This pipe-dream
has made them oblivious to the loss of human life and immense material
destruction that any war between the two countries is bound to entail.
But what is galling is their audacity to portray their adventure as
something endorsed by the international community. They are resorting to
this inexcusable fabrication with the sole and debased aim of pushing the
innocent citizens to support the war in the belief that its disastrous
consequences would be cushioned by a sympathetic international community.
Otherwise, the writing on the wall is crystal clear. Ethiopia has been
told, time and again, by all concerned governments and international bodies
to seek a peaceful and legal resolution to the conflict. The resolutions
adopted by the OAU, the Security Council, the Conference of the Non-Aligned
Movement all speak the same language: to avert an escalation of the
conflict by ensuring an immediate and unconditional cessation of
hostilities. The resolution (see box) adopted this week in Brussels by the
ACP-EU Joint Assembly (which brings together 15 European, and 71
Afro-Caribbean and Pacific countries) sums up succinctly the stance of the
international community on this unfortunate and avoidable conflict.
But in their frenzy to impose a military solution, Ethiopia's leaders are
quite capable of misreading the word. When the conflict was about to be
discussed in the UN Security Council last June, Ethiopia's impetuous Deputy
Foreign Minister, Tekeda Alemu, had boasted: "... the US Government and the
international community are on our side and we are certain that the UN
Security Council Resolution will be supportive of Ethiopia. This will allow
us to take any action we want on the Eritrean leader as he will have been
portrayed as Saddam Hussein and on Eritrea. The Port of Assab will fall
into our hands in the next few days". Mr. Tekeda had to chew his words when
Security Council members told him, through Resolution 1177/1998, that his
crazy ideas do not find currency in such august bodies.
The international community is not only opposed to an escalation of the
conflict but several governments have warned Ethiopia, in the strongest
possible terms, that the substantial development assistance that it gets
will be terminated if it resorts to war. And Ethiopia depends heavily on
external assistance. The World Bank's resident representative in Addis
Abeba, Mr. Omar Faez, acknowledged early this month that "Ethiopia is not
only the largest client of the Bank in Africa but also among its largest
clients world-wide.... Up to this fiscal year which ended in June 1998, the
Bank has financed projects worth 669 million dollars in the country".
Similarly, Ethiopia is the largest recipient of European Union (EU) support
both in programmable and non- programmable resources ahead of any other ACP
State, receiving 265 million ecu from Lome IV alone.
In light of these circumstances, the dire implications of war have been
sternly conveyed to Ethiopia's envoys when they toured several European
capitals last month. If they have misread this message or wish to disregard
it, it will only be to their peril. The Ethiopian people too will not be
hoodwinked by their transparent deceit.
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Please send additions and corrections to Kenneth Wilburn, web editor for H-AFRICA.
Last Revised: 8 October 1998
Date: Tue, 6 Oct 1998 12:22:14 -0500 (GMT-0500)
From: Harold Marcus
To: Ken Wilburn
From: Solen Solen
Reply-To: EthioForum@Ethiolist.com
To: EthioForum Mailing List
Subject: [EthioForum] - THE ERITREAN WAR OF AGGRESSION AGAINST ETHIOPIA: A
REFLECTION ON THE ETHIO - ERITREAN CONFLICT IN RETROSPECT AND PROSPECT
Document 2 of 4
From: Harold Marcus
To: Ken Wilburn
From: Eritreans@aol.com
Reply-To: EthioForum@Ethiolist.com
To: EthioForum Mailing List
Subject: [EthioForum] - War scenario - a voice from Eritrea
From: skassa@my-dejanews.com
Date: Mon, Oct 5, 1998 02:49 EDT
Message-id: <6v9q6i$n17$1@nnrp1.dejanews.com>
October 2, 1998
From: Harold Marcus
X-Sender: ethiopia@hs1
To: Ken Wilburn
Subject: [EthioForum] - We Are Prepared To Stand Alone If Need Be For
Principles and For Our National Dignity! (fwd)
----------------------------Original message----------------------------
Date: Fri, 02 Oct 1998 14:55:38 -0400
From: solhora@ibm.net
Reply-To: EthioForum@Ethiolist.com
To: EthioForum Mailing List
Subject: [EthioForum] - We Are Prepared To Stand Alone If Need Be For Princ=
iples and For Our National Dignity!
From: Harold Marcus
To: Ken Wilburn
Date: Fri, 2 Oct 1998 16:52:50 +0200
From: "G.G. Mekonnen"
Reply-To: Ethiopian Email Distribution Network
To: ETHIOPIA@HOME.EASE.LSOFT.COM
Subject: Re: TRUTH, 1/2 TRUTH & FALSEHOODTRUTH, 1/2 TRUTH & FALSEHOOD
Von: Deneke HMariam
An: ETHIOPIA@HOME.EASE.LSOFT.COM
Datum: Friday, October 02, 1998 12:16 PM
Betreff: TRUTH, 1/2 TRUTH & FALSEHOOD
All material posted on EEDN is the sole responsibility
of the author. No Material can be distributed, or reposted
in another medium. Visit Ethiopia on the WEB at URL:-->
http://www.ethiopians.com
====> ETHIOPIA-REQUEST@HOME.EASE.LSOFT.COM <====
9/30/98
by Professor Asmerom Kidane
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